“Snow Promotion Cost” by the Research Institute of Energy, Environment and Geology, Hokkaido Research Organization

Date of interview

September 16, 2020

Target

Izumi Noguchi, Manager; Hiroaki Suzuki, Senior Researcher; Kazuhiro Hamahara, Chief Examiner; and Tomoko Akutagawa, Chief Researcher; Environmental Conservation Division, Research Institute of Energy, Environment and Geology, Industrial Technology and Environment Research Department, Hokkaido Research Organization Makoto Oba, Laboratory Manager, Fukushima Branch, National Institute for Environmental Studies

Please tell us the background, purpose, and outline of “Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Cold, Snowy Regions,” which was implemented on the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund.

Mr. Noguchi: In 2016, as many as 4 typhoons made landfall in or came close to Hokkaido, where it had been rarely affected by typhoons before, and caused considerable damages. It was a proof that climate change has become a familiar matter to us. In facing this situation, I consider mitigation and adaptation extremely important.
Hokkaido is a very characteristic land which is covered in snow for nearly half of the year. It also functions as the base of food production in Japan, as its major industries are agriculture and fisheries. Tourism is also important, and many people come to Sapporo Snow Festival and the ski resorts that are globally well-known for powder snow from other parts of Japan and overseas. It means that climate change in Hokkaido is a theme with an extremely high level of interests that is related closely to the lives of the residents, and that it would affect every part of the country. This fiscal year, we therefore started a joint study with the National Institute for Environmental Studies and Hokkaido University on the effects of climate change and its adaptation with a focus on the snowfall and snow accumulation in Hokkaido while utilizing the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund in a 3-year plan. In this study, we grasp “snow” as a climate/weather factor, elucidate how it is changing in what areas, what effects it may cause, and how we should handle the changes, and examine what the effects of the changes in snow will lead to in the future.
Especially in the field of agriculture, we hope to study in a spatial scale that is close to the field level, and eventually consider the local adaptation measures in cooperation with the municipalities so that they can be introduced.

Please tell us about the current situation of snowfall and snow accumulation in Hokkaido, as well as future predictions. Can you also talk about the negative and positive effects of climate change?

Mr. Suzuki: According to Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory, the amount of snowfall on the Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido has shown a tendency to decrease since the 1960s. On the other hand, extremely heavy snowfalls have also stood out in recent years. For example, Horokanai Town, which is located in the northern region of Hokkaido, broke its record for the depth of snow in 2018 after 48 years. In March 2013, 9 people died in total throughout Hokkaido due to the snowstorm that occurred around the eastern part of Hokkaido.
While it is difficult to make future predictions on snow, it is basically assumed that both snowfall and the amount of snow accumulation will decrease in many areas unless this temperature increase is suppressed. However, a several degree increase in temperature in areas where the temperatures are extremely low in the first place and during the middle of winter regardless of the area will not change snow to rain. In that case, the amount of snow is expected to conversely increase as the amount of steam that can be contained in atmosphere increases due to the temperature rise. Furthermore, it is possible that the amount of snow will increase or decrease depending on the region as the atmospheric circulation field changes, including the flow of the westerlies, in concurrence with climate change. We would need to prepare measures for both cases of decreased snowfall and increased snowfall based on such tendencies and predictions.
Furthermore, regarding the snow quality, it is expected that more areas will have “granular snow,” which is often seen or observed in the beginning of spring. It is the type of snow that is not favored at ski resorts compared to the lightweight snow like powder snow. Ski resorts may have to reduce the number of days on which they can operate as the amount of snow decreases.

Mr. Noguchi: An additional point about snow quality is that wet snow is heavy and may cause effects such as broken tree branches, which means that orchards could suffer damages. In the field of transportation, while any snow on an aircraft must be removed before they can take flight, increased weight of snow may require use of snow melting agents or antifreezing agents and result in increased use of chemicals compared to lightweight snow, which can be blown off. In addition, there was a case in which a steel tower for electric cables collapsed due to the combined effects of heavy snow and strong winds in Noboribetsu City. Another possible matter regarding infrastructure is “salty snow damage,” which occurs as salt contained in snow is blown in wind against structures. It can cause electric leakage if salty snow adheres to equipment called the insulator, which is attached to electric cables. If this happens, it must be cleaned manually by stopping the electricity supply, which is both costly and troublesome, and also involves the risk of causing outage in the middle of winter. Furthermore, less snow may increase the percentage of animals such as Yezo sika deer passing the winter, and lead to feeding damage as their areas of distribution expand. There may be problems such as brown bears not going into hibernation but continuing to seek food in winter.
Positive effects include earlier snow melting in spring, which will allow farmers to start working in the field at an earlier stage. They could even start sowing earlier. Less snow also means lower cost of snow removal. However, this comes as a two-sides-of-a-coin situation with a negative effect, since it also means that the income of the people who work in snow removal will decrease. We hope to elucidate the positive and negative effects in more details in the future.

Please tell us about the new methods and concepts such as impact chain and adaptation pathways. Give us some domestic and international case examples if there are any.

Mr. Hamahara: A tool to visualize the chain reaction of the impacts of climate change in order to consider the adaptation measures is called “impact chain.” For example, it can express the series of the chain reactions of effects such as increased frequency of snowstorms causing snow removal efforts to fall behind and halting the traffic network, which results in obstruction of material distribution or increased traffic accidents and lower safety. There are also various other processes of effects, and I believe that collection of information based on both scientific and social aspects is necessary in order to cover everything. We hope to collect and organize various pieces of information from the actual cases in the area and research institutes.
“Adaptation pathway” refers to the paths for choices, such as what types of methods are available as adaptation measures and to which method we should switch when the impact progresses to what level. As you will see that several scenarios are being considered in climate change prediction for the future, climate change in the future will vary depending on how much we can reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Research in future prediction for climate change is rapidly advancing, and predictions may be corrected in the future. I consider that the purpose of adaptation pathway is to have various different paths ready to be selected depending on the changes in our situation, so that we can respond well to such changes in prediction information.

Mr. Oba: We held a workshop on creating the impact chain with participation by almost all sections from all the bureaus of the city office of Koriyama, Fukushima Prefecture. Koriyama City, in particular, has suffered considerable damages in Typhoon No. 19 last year, including flooding of industrial lands and incineration furnace. Under such circumstances, I think we were able to provide an opportunity for people in fields of industry, commerce, and civil engineering to actually exchange opinions beyond the boundaries of specialty. I believe impact chain allows the adaptation measures that can actually be utilized in the field to be examined as discussion is deepened while also supporting the viewpoints of consumers at times.

What type of information are you examining to provide to administrative employees and private businesses in promotion of climate change adaptation in Hokkaido? Please also tell us any future developments and issues.

Ms. Akutagawa: Hokkaido has 179 municipalities. It is quite large, and there are various different effects even from the change in snow alone, with varying impressions among the residents. It should form one study to find out how social implementation should be carried out in different scales from large cities like Sapporo to small towns and villages. We hope to hold workshops on impact chain, etc. like the one mentioned earlier and transmit information to everyone. Due to the current circumstances, we will work on this by also including web and on-demand teaching materials for the remaining two and a half years. Since the conditions such as weather and area differ between Honshu and Hokkaido, we would like to continue examination on how we can utilize preparation of impact chain in this region.

Lastly, what gives you the sense of satisfaction in being involved in climate change and adaptation as a research institute that is rooted in the region?

Mr. Noguchi: I think the technical words of researchers are difficult for the residents of Hokkaido and the people of local municipalities to understand. While we may also give presentations at international academic societies, we want to place importance on working in close cooperation with the communities and residents. We aim to transmit in words that are easy for anyone to understand, and continue learning ourselves. I believe that it eventually leads to our sense of satisfaction.